On my way to work this morning I was listening to the radio and caught the tail end of a discussion for things they anticipate to be obsolete by 2019. The list was taken from
www.mikehuang.com which I also posted below.
I can understand why/how most of what they listed would become non-existent, but #3 (USPS)- that would definitely be a shocker. Especially considering that the United States Postal Service has been a critical part of our national history for well over 200 years. As society continues to grow with technology and become more and more paperless, will the USPS be able to keep up or will we lose this part of history soon?
Any thoughts?
Michael Huang shared:"In my vision for 2019, I see some everyday devices and services going away.
1. Print MediaWhile the bells seem to already be tolling for newspapers and magazines across the country,
within the next ten years we will see print media re-invent itself as internet news media. While there is still some value in the branding of newspapers, as a physical medium, magazines and newspapers have their days numbered.
2. DVDsBlu-ray in many respects has already succeeded DVD as a media standard. While currently movies are simultaneously released on DVD and Blu-ray, it is likely that within the next ten years, DVD sales will plummet as Blu-ray sales increase. As long as people want to own their media, Blu-ray will be relevant. When network bandwidth increases in speed such that video-on-demand and digital media can be streamed in HD resolution and sold to consumers, will we see physical media go away.
3. U.S. Postal Service Mail DeliveryI don't think they'll be around as they are now in 10 years. With their largest customer being Netflix, the U.S. Postal Service is only active 6 days a week, and there was talk about reducing their delivery days to 5 days a week. I view Forever Stamps as a last ditch effort to increase their cash flow. Currently, Internet businesses are dependent on them as a delivery system, so I expect a Mail System Bailout to happen in the next ten years, which may involve Netflix or eBay to attempt to buyout or merge with the USPS if it seems likely to fail.
4. BooksThis is a contentious choice, but I suspect by 2019, that as many people will have e-readers that own iPods today, and just like CDs have more or less disappeared since the iPod, the same will be true with physical books. Once an e-reader has wireless digital download capability like the Kindle, it becomes very possible to sell reading material digitally for a fee. Online shopping made it possible to buy anything 24-hours a day, digital downloading e-books makes it possible to buy reading material 24-hours a day from anywhere. Just as it took movie studios a while to decide to release movies online, expect book publishers to move slowly to the online market as well; but 10 years from now, most books will be available in print and e-book, with the majority of sales being e-book. Going online will also re-open up sales for out-of-print and discontinued books in the publisher's catalog.
5. Videogame Consoles with Physical MediaCurrently all the videogame systems on the market right now rely on CD/DVD/Blu-ray media or cartridges/cards. In 2019, all games will be downloaded directly to the videogame system.
6. Gasoline Exclusive Engines and Manual TransmissionsHybrid engines will become the major engine type for Americans by 2019; while some remaining cars on the road will still have gasoline engines, the vast majority will be replaced by Hybrid. Manual Transmissions vehicles have been on a steady decline since the introduction of the Automatic transmission; with the Dual Clutch Transmission, the car's computer can shift faster and more accurately than a Manual. However, cars still won't fly (or hover).
7. Hard DrivesI think by 2019, these will all be solid-state. Faster, and more reliable than their magnetically based counterparts, right now the only factor is price, but as the price drops, expect solid state to take over the market.
8. Staplers, Printers, Fax Machines, Copiers, ScannersAs the need for paper documents is steadily decreasing, I expect that the need for these paper-based office supplies to diminish greatly in the coming years. As we become more digitally focused and tied to the Internet and computers in all manner of office work, I suspect that in 10 years, the only paper documents we see around the office will be post-it notes. Shredders will still be around to shred credit card offers.
9. Physical Maps and AtlasWith GPS technology and Google Maps, the need for map data stored on paper will be greatly diminished.
10. Phone books and EncylopediasIf you can use the internet, you don't need a phone book. With GPS and location aware services, there is isn't much need for a 4 inch regional reference volume. Encylopedias are in the same situation -- there is no reason to consult an encyclopedia when the Wikipedia is available online and contains up-to-date information. With Internet access becoming more available than library access, there is no future for large, bulky tomes of reference."
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